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Author: Subject: OF/1B errors
Splinter
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posted on 7-29-2010 at 09:38 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
OF/1B errors

Has anyone else noticed an imbalanced number of errors committed by OF, 1B and pitchers?

On one of my teams, 20 team errors, 4 errors by A+ OF), 2 (A+1B), 3 (B- 1B - former gg winner), 2 (D+/C+ SP - out of 12 chances), 1 (C/B- SP out of 8 chances), (1 (D-/D+ RP out of 1 chance). The remaining 7 errors are infielders and catchers.

4 by an A+ OF, 5 by 1B, 4 by pitchers, 7 for the entire rest of the team - mostly B/A type infielders.

On the other team, 11 errors through 28 games, 2 errors by A range 1B, 4 by A range CF, 1 error in 3 chances by D-/B+ SP, 1 error by B- range RF, 1 error by A range RF, two other team errors by the entire rest of the team - a B/B+ 3B.

So...of 31 team errors in 2 leagues, NINE have been by A or A+ range OF (we know they dont commit throwing errors), FOUR by A or A+ 1B (again, no throwing errors) and FIVE in 24 chances by these particular pitchers .

18/31 errors by very good fielding OF/1B and pitchers....

Seems like something is amiss...

Overall, pitchers should be at about .954 fielding %, OF between .985 and .990, 1B .994. with a total team fielding % in the .984 range (which is pretty accurate in this years SAL/HKL).

In these two leagues, players listed as OF are fielding at about .983 this year through 68 combined games. Seems a bit low.

Since players switch positions often in SD, its hard to get an accurate guage on where we are compared to where we should be and maybe my guys are just unlucky but a very good OF/1B shouldn't commit as many errors as I've experienced - especially since throwing errors don't exist for those positions.

And as long as I'm on fielding...I still can't understand why pitchers are saddled with crappy ratings in range/arm for their entire careers. That should improve over time - maybe hidden improvements simliar to mentorship or tied to leadership.





Kansas City Coyotes (SAL) Replacement 1954
Back-to-back World Series Champion 1961-62
American League Champion 1959
Playoffs 1959-63

Boston Red Fox (HKL) Replacement 1996
Playoffs 2004

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posted on 7-29-2010 at 10:09 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
I don't disagree with what you have posted, but I will point out that throwing errors DO occur for 1B. It happens rarely, but it does happen. (I don't recall seeing a throwing error from the OF.)





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posted on 7-31-2010 at 04:39 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
I've pretty much watched every game in 2 leagues since I started SD - 10th season in SAL, 9th season in HKL...never seen a 1B throwing error, never seen a OF throwing error - and you know I pay attention to defense.

And 1B has made a lot of 3-6-3 type throws which ended up being 3-4-3 throws. :lol:





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Back-to-back World Series Champion 1961-62
American League Champion 1959
Playoffs 1959-63

Boston Red Fox (HKL) Replacement 1996
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posted on 8-3-2010 at 07:44 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
I think we could probably stand to look into this a bit more in depth. From time to time, I examine different levers in the sim and adjust when necessary. Each position has a core fielding percentage, perhaps these should be tweaked. I'll look into this when I get some time.

Tyson





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posted on 8-6-2010 at 10:50 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Sitewide, this season, in pay leagues, 1B who are natural 1B have a fielding percentage of .996

LF are at .984. CF at .987, RF at .986.

Do those numbers look about right?

Tyson





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posted on 8-7-2010 at 12:11 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
CF average should be about .990, LF is probably about right and RF looks a little high.

Considering the best defensive OF in SD usually end up in CF and the worst in RF, there should be a far lager gap between the .987 you found in CF and the .986 in RF.

Since 1954, only 13 RF with 500 career games in RF fielded at .987 or better. There are 5 active RF with 500 games with a .987 or better.

Since 1954, 66 CF have fielded at .987 or better, 26 at .990 or better, and 9 active at .990. Of the 22 active that qualify with 500 games, 16 are .987 or better.

In LF, the historical gap is quite wide, but Raul Ibanez is a career .986 and Carlos Lee is .984...average or above average for SD but I don't think anyone would consider either of them average LF.


I think the more interesting analysis might be, what are the A+ OF at their natural positions fielding at? A, A-, B+ etc.

Because an A+ OF at three positions with a +17 shouldn't be fielding at .980. An A CF/LF at +27 is above average and should be better than .987 or .988 and an A- CF at +7 this year should be better than .976.



Of the top 16 innings played in CF (natural pos) in SAL:
A+ .995
A+ .986
A+ .978
A+ .973

A .991
A .985
A .985
A .981

A- .995
A- .976

B+ .990
B+ .985
B+ .974
B+ .973

B .984

B- .988

HKL:
A+ .988
A+ .988
A+ .986

A 1.000
A .979
A .978
A .977

A- .987
A- .987
A- .977

B+ .975
B+ .976

B 1.000
B .969

C+ .963

C- 1.000 (62/62 !)

So if average/mean/median (whatever) in both these leagues is about the high A-/low A range, it would follow that those above should be above .990 and those below...

In HKL, 1 of the top 8 rated CF are above .990. In SAL, 3 of the top 9 are above .990.

It seems to me that maybe the high end guys aren't as good as they should be and the low end guys aren't as bad as they should be.

Could some of this be ballpark configurations penalizing outfielders too much? Just because an outfield is bigger, does it really need to follow that there are more errors? More extra base hits, less HR - I understand, but more errors? I could see a greter likelyhood of more positive +/- plays, but once a red letter glove gets to a ball, there shouldn't be a greater likelyhood of him booting it - should there?





Kansas City Coyotes (SAL) Replacement 1954
Back-to-back World Series Champion 1961-62
American League Champion 1959
Playoffs 1959-63

Boston Red Fox (HKL) Replacement 1996
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posted on 8-9-2010 at 06:47 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Here are some numbers from MLB.

Looking at the last 5 seasons, the median Fielding percentage for qualified 1B was: .995, .9945, .9955, .995, .9955. I think .995 is a good target. If anything, 1B make a few too few errors in SD.

For LF, the numbers in MLB are .9895, .985, .9855, .987, .987. SD numbers look low here at .984.

For CF, the MLB numbers were .9925, .991, .990, .992, .9905. SD is at .987. Low again.

For RF, the MLB numbers were .985, .991, .986, .981, and .986. SD is at .986, that looks about right.

One thing to consider is that SD doesn't have stretching outs (aka Kills) at 2B or 3B, only SFs. Those go down as assists for OFs and help FPCT.

I didn't look at pitchers the other day. Let me look at them now. The last 5 full years for qualified pitchers, the medians were .9665, .968, .976, .968, .968. SD has pitchers at .9615. A bit on the low side.

I'm going to make some adjustments for P, LF and CF in the sim so they make fewer errors. You'll see this change come over in mid-September.

Tyson





To help us serve you better, please use the message boards for all questions or problems. u2u should NEVER be used. If it is something of a private nature, please post in the Support forum and mark it as private. This helps us save time and money, which ultimately leads to more improvements to the game and the lowest prices possible. The Support forum is always read before u2us. u2us sent to Admin will be reposted to Support and addressed after issues posted properly.

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Splinter
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Mood: 20 rows behind the visitors dugout at Target Field...How do you THINK my mood is?

posted on 8-9-2010 at 07:16 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
I appreciate your work on this.





Kansas City Coyotes (SAL) Replacement 1954
Back-to-back World Series Champion 1961-62
American League Champion 1959
Playoffs 1959-63

Boston Red Fox (HKL) Replacement 1996
Playoffs 2004

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